As we all know, COVID-19 has slowed the growth of the Spanish economy, sending it into recession with two consecutive quarters of decline.
Currently, we find ourselves in a situation of uncertainty, with the Pitcher vaccine looming out the window, and with a rise in our stock market much higher than any other part of the world.
This Pfitzer vaccine claims to be over 90% effective, exceeding the WHO average of 60%, which stated that any vaccine with an effectiveness above this range would be beneficial.
The return to normality, together with the economic stimuli presented by the Central Banks, will raise the confidence of society, which has been saving for months as a precaution.
If we see this excess savings translated into investment (or even spending) in 2021, we will be able to see how this year could become a great economic ally, due to the rise in the movement of capital, unleashing total and absolute demand from all individuals.
The sectors most affected by the pandemic (hospitality, tourism, automotive…), could begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel if these economic expectations generated by Pfizer are confirmed.
Raymond Torres, Director of International Economics and Economic Affairs at Funcas, said that “The prospects for the Spanish economy would improve drastically if we had the certainty of the arrival of a vaccine (and its mass administration) within a reasonable period of time, for example, from mid-2021 onwards”.
All the forecasts established by the experts contemplated the arrival of a vaccine, but none of them imagined that it would contain such a high level of effectiveness and the speed with which it could be on the market.
Moderna is also about to release the effectiveness of its vaccine in the next few days, and its effectiveness is expected to be similar to that of Pfizer. If both vaccines arrive in time for Easter, Spain could be a major beneficiary.
Hopefully, both vaccines will show the published effectiveness. However, we must be cautious, we must continue to watch our savings because as COVID has shown us, you never know what may happen in the coming months.
Let’s hope that by the third quarter of 2021, everything will have turned out to be just a scare, and we will be able to continue growing economically, but above all on a social level. We all deserve a little rest.
